Questions:

1. What did change the Muammar Gaddafi`s regime in the last decades: Pressure from the outside, change of the global politics after the end of the Cold War or first of all Gaddafi`s ability to survive changes?

2. It was announced at the end of 2003 that the Libya had agreed to disclose and dismantle their WMD programs. Many people suggest Gaddafi did this because he was afraid after the Iraq War he could face the same fate as Saddam Hussein. Did Iraq invasion of Iraq in 2003 influence Gaddafi`s decision to stop WMD programs or not?

3. Gaddafi`s regime is still authoritarian. How to deal with Gaddafi now?

1. A combination of internal and external pressures caused the Gaddafi regime in 1999 to turn over the two Libyan suspects in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, thus initiating the process of international rehabilitation which has blossomed in recent months. a) Gaddafi faced growing internal dissent from Islamists, elements within the military, and competing tribal leaders. b) Three decades of socialist experimentation left the Libyan economy in a shambles. With the economy almost totally dependent on revenues from oil and gas exports, Gaddafi realized that he had to make peace with the West in order to attract the foreign expertise and investment desperately needed to increase oil and gas production and thus turn the economy around. c) The Libyans knew that the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs that the West worried about were in fact a joke. The nuclear weapons program was struggling, there was no active biological weapons program, and the chemical weapons program was limited to the production of a large quantity of mustard gas and precursor chemicals for the production of nerve gas with no long-range missiles or other delivery systems available to delivery them to a target. Realizing the WMD offered no protection, the Libyans wisely volunteered to give them up.

2. As early as 1992, the Libyan government offered to discuss any and all issues of interest to the United States, including weapons of mass destruction, in return for improved bilateral relations, and it repeated this offer several times over the next decade. The U.S. refused all of these overtures on the grounds it was only interested in Libya turning over the two suspects in the bombing of Pan Am flight 103. Once Libya did this in 1999, the U.S. held secret talks with Libya, but limited the subject this time to the fulfillment of all Libyan obligations under applicable UN resolutions. It was only in 2003, after Libya offered to discuss WMD programs with the United Kingdom who then involved the United States, that WMD programs were on the table. Given the fact that the Libyans had been willing to discuss WMD for more than a decade before 2003, I see no validity in the argument that the invasion and occupation of Iraq, followed by the capture of Saddam Hussein suddenly influenced Gaddafi's decision to open negotiations with the UK and then the US. On the contrary, I see the Libyan decision to give up its weapons of mass destruction as a victory for old fashioned, patient diplomacy which the Bush administration then tried to turn into a justification for its preemptive strike strategy in Iraq.

3. Today, the Libyan people live under a stifling socioeconomic and political system which Gaddafi took four decades to construct and which could take another four decades to dismantle. Real political power is in the hands of Gaddafi and a few trusted advisors and is based on tribal and family ties as well as the armed forces and security services. There is no chance for significant political reform to this centralized, authoritarian system as long as Gaddafi is in power because his regime is wholly dependent on it. Therefore, while the Gaddafi regime has achieved a measure of international rehabilitation, realpolitik may call for its authority to be recognized but it does not imply condoning past deeds or failing to question future policies and actions.

Dana Moss, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

1. The nature of the regime hasn't changed to such a great extent in the last decades. Qaddafi's foreign policy ambitions have been curbed by various factors - including the effect of multilateral and bilateral sanctions and the wish to maintain a relationship with the US.

2. The Iraq war may have had an effect in terms of timing, and helped sharpen Qaddafi's mind, but the economic situation in Libya, coupled with political dissent against Qaddafi, were the long-term factors. In fact, the Libyans had been negotiating with the US back in 1999.

3. There is not that much leverage in dealing with Qaddafi. One thing he does want is international acceptance and recognition as a leader - we can try and use that as a means of pressuring for human rights improvements. I wouldn't be too optimistic though.

Richard Dekmejian, Professor of Political Science, University of Southern California

Having met Col. Gaddafi many years ago and seen him survive until now, I can attest to his survival capabilities. He has instituted changes in recent years because of outside threats, particularly from the US after Iraq and economic reasons at home. He is faced with a succession issue as well as to keep the intertribal balance and find a way to suppress Islamic radicalism while bettering the lives of urbanites.