And what about the role of Vladimir Voronin

Questions:

1. Few months ago the world has witnessed the violent reactions on the results of the parliamentary election in Moldova. Any chance the history could repeat and why?

2. What are the biggest challenges Moldova will face in the near future no matter who will win election?

3. According to popular belief Vladimir Voronin is the richest Moldovan. How would you describe his role in two decades of Moldova’s politics and what about his role in the future? And BTW do you think he is the richest Moldovan?

Elena Gnedina, The Centre for European Policy Studies

1. The competition among the main political parties is going to be stiff, and neither the Communist party nor the opposition will receive enough votes to elect the President on its own. This may invite electoral abuse, use of administrative resources and other 'dirty' technologies; however, their use will be limited as there would be a strong international election observation mission on the ground. In the wake of the elections, the threshold for party representation in the parliament has been increased. This measure will favour smaller parties: the Christian Democratic Party, loyal to the communists, may enter the parliament and join the communists in a ruling coalition, as it happened after the 2005 elections. Whatever the results of the elections are, the electoral crisis will have several positive results: building up of a more mature opposition, establishment of a party/movement with a distinct centre ideology (Democratic Party), greater awareness of the Moldovan society of political life and debates on Moldova's future.

2. The priorities for Moldova should be sound economic policies, necessary to overcome the negative consequences of the global financial and economic crisis, and European integration.

3. Voronin and his family are said to be the richest in Moldova. In a recent debate on the ProTV, Marian Lupu (former Speaker of the Moldovan Parliament) publicly accused Voronin of rent-seeking and favoritism.

Florent Parmentier, The Center of European Studies, Sciences-Po (Paris)

1. On the one side, you have currently in Moldova an extreme polarization of the public debate, at its highest level since a decade. The Communist majority insists that it should “defend the State against the extremist” (on their own words). On the other side, the opposition is more united than it was only a few months ago, and acts to defend the rule of law – i.e. protecting the citizens against State abuses (repression) and perceived electoral frauds. The failure of the election of a President shows the tension.

If the causes are there, however, we can wonder if the “window of opportunity” will be there for a massive protest. The Communist side has chosen to make the election in the middle of July, when the possibility to mobilize the students is weaker. On top of that, I will take place on Wednesday – many working people will find difficult to vote.

Overall, I think that there will be people in the street maybe not on Wednesday night, but maybe the day after – the question is the ability of the protestors to mobilize and stay on the Central place (Stefan cel Mare). The communist party will remain first in any case, but the margin may decide the attitude of their opponents.

2. I see three main challenges in the coming months. First, Moldova’s political landscape has changed. The last few years have been relatively stable – especially after the turmoil of the 1990s. However, the foundation of this stability (Voronin) is new divisive. The generational gap is wide, and there is a need for political reconciliation for the sake of the country. The only benefactor of this unstable situation would be the Transnistrian leadership. Second, if Moldova has a weak financial system, it suffers from the crisis because it is less able to export its product, whereas the remittances (a strong economic component of the last years’ growth) will decrease. Third, Moldova will have to define its relations with the EU; it should improve its democratic governance and prepare to costful economic adaptation (EU rules and norms). The Visegrad group has been instrumental in the launch of the Eastern Partnership, it should now tackle the question of Moldova seriously. On the other side, Moldova has tried to improve its relations with Moscow at the same time – notably because of the Transnistrian issue, which is probably not the most urgent now.

3. Voronin can be seen as a president who has embodied for a large part of the desire for stability after the difficult 1990s, at a time when he was in the opposition. Although nominally a communist, he has had young advisors who are market-oriented, and has launched some reforms which are definitely pro-market; although pro-Russian at the beginning (particularly in the 2001 elections), he was able to get along with Romania at times (under certain conditions) in order to get closer to the EU (legislative campaign of 2005); he now tries to find a balance between the EU and Russia, but maintains a tension with Romania. What he has understood is how to secure support in the countryside and among the older generation and minorities, but he has been able to reach other targets.

Now, the young generations and intelligentsia reject many aspects of its political legacy – he is considered as corrupted, cynical, authoritarian and not sincerely pro-European. He was able to concentrate wealth because of its political position – through notably the network of its son, Oleg, who owns several companies. Whatever the position, he wants to stay involved in Moldovan politics. Some explain that he wants to stay close to the power probably also because of the immunity associated…

Nicu Popescu, The European Council on Foreign Relations

1. I do not think there will be more violence. Potential protesters are afraid while the government is much more prepared to potentially control the situation. But I am sure that the political crisis will continue to unfold. Moldova will enter a few months of very difficult negotiations on the new government and president. In any case I expect the political situation to remain very difficult for the next few years.

2. In Moldova most things that could go wrong – have done so. The challenges are across the board: the economy and the politics are in deep crisis. Both are interlocked.

3. Vladimir Voronin has played a role in consolidating the Moldovan state for the last 8 years. He has pushed some things forwards on Moldova’s efforts to come closer to the EU and has tried to push for conflict settlement in Transnistria. He has achieved some progress, especially in bringing Moldova closer to the EU economically, and pushing the EU to play a bigger role in conflict resolution in Moldova. But a lot of Voronin’s pro-European rhetoric was pro-forma, especially on domestic reforms. His biggest failure is to democratise Moldova and fight corruption which greatly limited Moldova’s rapprochement with the EU. After two terms in power Voronin has to step down and let a younger generation manage the country and he seems unable to do so. All the soigns are that he wants to perpetuate his presence in politics, which will hugely influence how his role will be judged in the future.

His son Oleg Voronin is most probably the richest persons in the country.