Does she have a chance for successful run for a White House in 2012?

Questions:

1. Do you see any logic behind this move?

2. Would you say she has some chance for kind of successful run for a White House in 2012? (with successful I don't mean she will just run).

Answers:

Michael Cheney, Professor of Communication at University of Illinois at Springfield

1. Sarah Palin's resignation took everyone by surprise. No one saw it coming. Why did she resign is the question of the day. In her rambling, and I mean rambling, 18 minute press conference, she never really seemed to have a solid reason. We got a string of little snippets of reasons - did not want to be a lame duck -- ignoring that both Bush (43) and Clinton (42) were lame duck governors when they got the Presidency; wanted to pass the ball for a new group to continue the record of success -- ignoring that the Alaska economy has tanked and the rebates to the citizens for the oil proceeds disappeared when the price of oil changed; resisted the infusion of federal government into the state's business -- which is a replay of the "bridge to no nowhere" discussion where she opposed and then accepted and with the stimulus package, she first refused, then took almost all of it, but had enough turned down to never change her story that she turned down federal stimulus dollars.

I also see the Palin persona taking any number of hits and so she jumped ship before the ship finished its voyage. Alaska economy going down, several investigations of her activities as governor, a drop from 80 to 50% in approval rating and who knows if that was the bottom -- I think not; and the most recent story in VANITY FAIR - on line - by Todd P which has some damning (can I say that in your publication?) info on her behavior.

2. Does she have a future?

NO!!!. She is a Republican and they value hard work, ongoing commitment to matters, and not a cut and run approach. (Just review the commentary from GOP folks about how the US should deal with Iraq.) So the party ideology is steeped in hard work, sticking it out through thick and thin, and keeping moving ahead. (As an aside, I think the reason Sanford is still a governor in SC is that he understands this theme and will ride out his current situation and, if things tick up, he is not a resigned governor and he has a record. However much sport was made of President BUuh (43)'s experience as governor, he had more seat time his first year than Palin had in her stint.

I do know in talking to folks in both the Romney and Huckabee camps, they would love to have Palin as an opponent and go toe to toe against her - record against record - and no cute winks nor "pagent" walks would let her avoid the issue.

In your question is the small sub question as to whether there is any way she could emerge as a leading figure for the GOP? I would not see it being likely, but with no real person being the leader, she might be able to emerge.

As someone who pulls from the GOP base, much is made of her starting support, but not mentioned are her starting numbers where she would have at best a 20-25% national base.And as one person told me, if she had had one fewer votes in 2008 she would be in the low single digits. What was the one vote - John McCain selecting her and a lot of McCain's credibility bolstered her standing. But recently, McCain was on late night circuit and one question on the upcoming voice of the GOP had him citing almost every known GOP governor with any kind of national standings, except one. And he commented, I know I did list one name and I will hear about it of a current governor.

David McCuan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Sonoma State University

1. Governor Palin is tired and done with governing Alaska. Most of her reasons for this play and announcement, however, are all personal and all about Sarah Palin. What the Palins do best is protect and present in the best possible light the "fairytale" that is Sarah Palin.

Her timing of the announcement (on the heals of a three-day weekend, near the end of the business day on that Friday, July 3rd), was perplexing and yet, all too typical for her.

She is riddled with contradictions and uncertainty as a politician. She tries to be "different," to do things in a different way - to head in a different direction, but, alas, her actions here with this announcement reek of a rich media play that has no real political benefit - other than to confuse, increase some drama ("why is she doing this now?"), to add to her mystique as a counter-intuitive pool. But, let me be clear here – you only make an announcement like this to do two things - rid yourself of bad news (in terms of a financial scandal as one example, especially given the investigations of her and her family over the last year or so) OR to provide yourself some freedom to raise money for 2012.

I think she is confused by the former reason (investigations and possible scandal) and motivated by the latter reason - to run and set out early for 2012 given the confused state of the national GOP and the lack of a front-runner.

Right now it is her, Pawlenty (of Minnesota), and Romney as the three folks leading the pack for the GOP in 2012. All three of those folks are a dream opponent for President Obama's team. They'd take any one of those three.

2. Nope. I see little chance that Governor Palin could be: A. The presumptive GOP nominee in 2012; and B. A winner against President Obama.

Could she be a "sacrificial lamb" for the party a la Senator Bob Dole in 1996 who ran against President Clinton? That is possible, but I don't see her as a "ready for prime time" GOP nominee.

Too many in her party don't like her and think she is a joke. The GOP may be seriously adrift as a party, but Sarah Palin is not the life ring nor the skipper that can right the GOP ship at this moment or in the near future.

Jerry McBeath, Political Science Professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks

1. At this point, no one other than Palin, her family and close advisors, knows what comes next in her career. She has a lucrative book contract on which she can work, probably she has many offers from the media to consider (TV, radio shows, perhaps being a columnist). She's been on a rocky road in the state since she returned from the 2008 presidential campaign, and focusing on her work as governor (and needing to stay in-state). So I've seen it several interview that the announcement is good news for Palin and good news for the state.

2. Of the other potential candidates for the republican race in 2012, she has the most secure base in the religious right (about 20-22 percent of the American electorate). She shares their values and articulates them. Well, and is photogenic to boot. I'd say she'll be among the strong contenders in early 2012, but she would have to reach out to moderates and independents to make a successful run for the presidency, and at this time, I don't think she's likely to be able to do that.

Marty Linsky, Adjunct Lecturer at Harvard University, Owner, Cambridge Leadership Associates

1. Unless there is something we really don't know, the only logic is to concentrate on her presidential aspirations.

2. People than those she appealed to before, and she will lose some of them because running for the top job is very different than running for #2. As bad shape as the republicans are in, i think her base is very narrow and she will not get the nomination.

Darrel West, VP and Director, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution

Palin's announcement has stunned the political world. It is unclear why she is resigning her office and what will come next for her. You shouldn't make this kind of decision without explaining why you are resigning. The poor way in which she handled this announcement weakens her political position for a presidential run.