And who could eventually replace him.

Questions:

1. No matter when the general election will be held in UK do you think Gordon Brown will stay as the leader of the Labour Party for the election or no and why?

2. In your opinion who could eventually replace him and why?

Answers:

Robin Pettitt, Lecturer in Comparative Politics, School of Social Science,Kingston University

1. Whether Gordon Brown will stay on will depend on two things:
1) the results of the European Parliament Elections. Today the results of a number of elections for County Councils have come out and Labour has done very very badly indeed. However, these elections have not been nationwide, so the European Parliament Elections will be a crucial test of just how unpopular Labour is. If the Labour vote falls below 20 percent and/or if Labour comes fourth behind Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) it would be almost impossible for Brown to hold on.

2) how successful the growing plot amongst Labour MPs is. An unknown number of MPs have been trying to build support for a letter to Brown calling for him to resign. These rebels have tried to be very secretive about what they are doing, not meeting openly and have tried to organise the rebellion via email and mobile phone. This has made them look dishonest, secretive and afraid of standing up to Gordon Brown openly. The recent expenses scandal has made MPs look like they are afraid of being open and honest about what they are doing. They way the rebels are operating has only added to that impression. There is also a feeling that they are starting to look slightly silly - pretending to be James Bond on some kind of secret mission. The fact that they have worked so hard on not doing things in the open, afraid to openly challenge Gordon Brown, afraid of standing out in the full light of day and say that Gordon Brown should stand down, may ultimately lead them to fail. They will no doubt use the weekend to try to complete their plot. If they succeed to get a large number of Labour MP to support the letter it would be very difficult for Gordon Brown to stay on. The critical number is about 60-80 MPs. The problem for any plot against Gordon Brown is that the Labour Party rules makes it nearly impossible to force a Labour Prime Minister to stand down. A lot will therefore depend on how stubborn Gordon Brown is. However, there is no doubt that the situation for Gordon Brown is very serious. A lot more will be known after Sunday when the European election results are out and the status of the plot against him is more clear. If he survives past Monday he will probably be safe until the election.

2. At the moment Alan Johnson the new Home Secretary, in charge of domestic law and order, is the most likely candidate to succeed Brown if he stands down in the next few days. He is seen as someone who may be able to save Labour from total defeat at the next election, after which someone else, possibly younger may take over. Johnson is a former Trade Union leader, is seen as well connected with the working class base of the Labour Party and has a reputation for being competent and not making enemies. If Gordon Brown survives through to the election and then steps down after a likely defeat, there are a large number of people who may try to become leader including the deputy leader Harriet Harman or the Foreign Secretary David Miliband. David Miliband is a very likely future leader - young, energetic, and someone who might be able to match David Cameron in being as successful as Tony Blair was in charming the public when he first won power.

Eric Shaw, Department of Politics, University of Stirling

1. At the moment this is touch again - with the balance (just) in favour of him staying. The main reasons if he does survive are as follows:
The fear that if Labour changed its leader again the pressure to have an election very soon would be difficult to resist. MPs want to stave off an election as long as possible. The fear that Gordon Brown will not go easily causing much internal party strife. Party rules which make it difficult to replace a leader and make the election of a successor potentially a long drawn-out affair. Divisions amongst GB's opponents, notably between the uber-Blairites and the more left-inclined. Supportive moves notably from Alain Johnson and David Miliband Not least, Labour has no tradition (unlike the Tories) of regicide. There is a deeply-embedded cultural reluctance to remove leaders.

That said, it might take only another cabinet resignation to tip the
balance

2. Alan Johnson. Has few enemies, is widely acceptable to all wings of the party and is seen to have a good media image.

Stuart McAnulla, Lecturer at the School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds

1. I think Gordon Brown's leadership is in a critical condition, much will depend if he can survive the next 48 hours, following more cabinet resignations today and likely poor results in the European elections. If he can survive the next few days then I believe he will stay leader until the next election. However, things are very much in the balance as we speak.

2. If Gordon Brown is removed then the most highly favoured candidate at the moment is Alan Johnson. Other candidates would include Harriet Harman and David Miliband.

John Callaghan, Professor of Politics and Contemporary History, University of Salford

It is very difficult to predict anything in British politics at the moment because of the wave of anger that has passed over the people in relation to MPs expenses by my guess is that Brown will remain Prime Minister until he calls an election in May or June of next year. Labour will lose that election. In the months that follow, the leadership of the Labour Party will be contested by at least 6 internal candidates. Brown's successor will probably be Alan Johnson.