Daily Telegraph is pretty sure about this.
What about the thoughts of some experts?
Question:
Do you think it could
be true and would you say it is useful (any example from history when that kind
of operation was useful)? Do you think it could undermine the regime in Tehran or no matter if it
is true or false information it would be probably vaste of time and money?
Answers:
Jennifer Kibbe, assistant professor of
government at Franklin & Marshall College
Yes, I
do think it's quite feasible that the reports are true (although I do not
know). Covert operations of this type
could be useful, as long as you keep in mind their limitations. In other words,
they could certainly delay Iran's
progress on the nuclear front but they're not going to end the program or
change Iran's
mind about pursuing it. As one source in
the Telegraph article mentioned, they could be an effective delaying tactic
while you pursue a diplomatic solution but, on the other hand, covert
operations (particularly violent ones such as assassinations) run the risk of
upsetting the Iranian regime and making them more recalcitrant in negotiations.
And, yes, whether true or false, if Tehran
gets worried enough about the possibility of such programs, they will spend
time, energy and money trying to combat them which will detract from other
issues they might want to focus on.
Michael Smith writes on defence and
security issues for the Sunday Times and New Statesman.
I don’t think that Israel has any choice but to mount
covert operations against the Iranian nuclear programme. It has no hope of
getting US
support for a military attack, even Bush declined to do that in the end. The
Iranian nuclear programme is not centred in one place and key installations are
deep underground. The Iranian air defence system is at any event far superior
to that the Israelis faced when they took down the Osirak reactor in Iraq.
The report is by a credible journalist and is at any event in itself credible.
Assassinations of key people in programmes is not new to the Israelis of course,
they murdered Gerald Bull to prevent the Iraqi supergun project. How effective
it can be with Iran
is another matter. The best way forward is via negotiation and if covert
measures are to be used they would be better focused on encouraging a more
moderate regime.
James Denselow,
doctoral candidate at School of Social Science and Public Policy, King's
College London
This history of
conflicts between powerful states has shown that overt and all out fighting is
often the last resort of resolving disputes. Iran and the US/Israel have been
fighting a variety of proxy conflicts that have increased in tempo over the
last few years. While Iran provides financial, logistical and weaponry
support to enemies of the US/Israel across the Middle East (Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in Israel/OPT
and various militias in Iraq)
- the US/Israeli response has been to engage in similar covert operations both
inside Iran (especially the
southern border regions with Iraq)
and against Iranian allies. I would suggest that
these activities constitute retaliation by the US
and Israel
against Iranian policies. There is little evidence that they are of sufficient
size and strategic importance to be able to bring about 'regime change'.
Clearly the issue of Iran's
acquiring a nuclear weapon and US/Israeli efforts to prevent this are the crux
of the matter. Any large-scale and overt attack against Iran's nuclear facilities would likely draw a
response by Iran
(directly and via it's allies) across the region. As the clock continues to count
down to Iran acquiring a nuclear capacity this remains the key issue - what
steps are the US/Israel willing to take to prevent that from happening.