Four historians who participated in C-Span presidential survey answered my questions about the first month of Barack Obama in the office.

Questions:
1. During the presidential campaign Obama often said, as a president he'll be ready from day one and he'll start working on problems immediately. How did Obama start his presidency?

2. What was the brightest moment of the first month and what was the biggest disappointment?

3. One of the biggest topics nowadays is the stimulus bill. When is Obama speaking about it, he often uses superlative words and terms like 'milestone' etc. If the stimulus will not work or will not work soon enough or will work only partially, do you think that can ruin Obama's popularity? Could stimulus and its fate define his whole first term?

4. My last question is very speculative one and of course it is only up to you if you will answer. How do you see the chances for Obama to place well in the similar poll as was C-SPAN for example in 2020? What could be his position?

Answers:
Fred I. Greenstein, Professor of Politics Emeritus Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton

1. Obama started with an inaugural address that stressed the importance of a fundamental attack on the nation's problems, especially the economic problems.

2. His disappointments have been the lack of Republicans support for his huge economic stimulus law. His brightest spot is the passage of that measure in his first three weeks as president.

3. If the economy does not improve, Obama will suffer politically. It is possible that the economy will improve by the next election, even of the stimulus bill isn't the cause. If it does, he will receive credit from the public.

4. It is highly likely that Obama will be a highly rated president, but no one can tell with certainty what the future will bring.

Russel Riley, Chair of the Miller Center's Presidential Oral History Program, University of Virginia

1. I actually think he is off to a good start--although it has certainly not been perfect. The fact is that we have to consider his performance in light of the circumstances he inherited, and he's come into office with some of the biggest and most urgent problems a president has ever confronted at this stage of the presidency. I can only think of two presidents who were elected and then encountered such pressing business at this stage: Abraham Lincoln (US Civil War) and Franklin Roosevelt (The Great Depression). Thirty days into most presidencies they are still trying to figure out the telephone systems--and this president has been asked to repair the global economy. So rating him is a bit like judging Olympic events--one must factor in the "degree of difficulty" of the attempt.

2. I'd guess the brightest moment for him was the inaugural ceremony itself--because of the profound meaning it had for African-Americans. A close second would be signing the recovery bill. The biggest disappointment: the loss of Tom Daschle, who was to be the head of the department of Health and Human Services, and to direct the White House effort to reform the health care system. Daschle is a long-time friend and a key figure in his elevation to the presidency. So that is a personal and a severe political loss. A close second: the absence of any Republican support for his recovery efforts. I think he truly believed he could break through on this front.

3. Good question. I think his place in history may well ride on how effective the bill is, but the one thing to remember is that Obama is a splendid (if unconventional) politician and a master communicator. The big advantage he has is that things started to fall apart before he came to office, and most Americans clearly associate the difficulties we now face with George W. Bush. My guess is that he can thus very effectively fend off criticism for a good while by pointing the finger of blame at his predecessor. The question is how long he can keep this up--how long people will give him before their patience expires. I think he begins with an enormous reservoir of good will--little of which has been eaten up thus far--and his own talents will be very useful for preserving that patience for a good long while. It helps that he's established a reputation as a serious person--and has a skill at telling people bad news.

4. It is way too soon to answer this question--which will depend to some extent on his skill in office, probably much more so on how events break. If the global economy somehow avoids a financial meltdown, and some measure of stability and growth reappears in the years ahead, he'll look like a savior. A lot of that will depend on events that are well beyond the control of even the most powerful of presidents.

Stanley Renshon, coordinator of the Interdisciplinary Program in the Psychology of Social and Political behavior, professor of City University of New York

1. He started with a burst of speed and a cloud of (rhetorical) dust. The first because he had to with the economic crises he faced; the second because he's still operating in campaign mode.

2. The brightest point is his actual election and what it symbolizes about the progress of race relations in America. The biggest disappointment is that is "post-partisan" rhetoric seems to be just that.

3. In the worst case for him and us, it would. But I expect there to be at least marginal economic improvement, as a result of the normal economic cycle, for which, of course, the administration will claim credit--loudly.

4. Much too soon to tell..

H. W. Brands, Professor of History and Professor of Government, University of Texas

1. A good first month for Obama. He asked for a stimulus package, and he got it.

2. The inauguration was the high point. The withdrawal of the Tom Daschle nomination the low point. The latter sets back health care reform considerably.

3. If the economy picks up, Obama will get reelected. If it doesn't, probably not.

4. Whatever a poll says about Obama in 2020 will be premature. Just like the polls on George W. Bush today.